Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 14.038400 17.120073 20.562752 24.671292 29.417429 34.704075 41.013269
2025-04-27 9.819911 13.841157 18.847203 25.435241 33.765631 43.832616 56.789711
2025-05-04 7.582740 11.979886 17.928229 26.340304 37.679596 52.167218 71.770960
2025-05-11 6.013227 10.514010 17.058303 26.889713 40.851494 59.496287 85.725558
2025-05-18 4.704235 9.073885 15.877552 26.683165 42.762979 65.085913 97.559609
2025-05-25 3.596325 7.664958 14.446353 25.811799 43.488207 68.925325 107.076208
2025-06-01 2.864002 6.708265 13.532616 25.538211 44.951401 73.770708 118.135262
2025-06-08 2.179977 5.657022 12.257041 24.465516 45.001229 76.447301 126.112355
2025-06-15 1.875885 5.286788 12.112676 25.236900 47.981839 83.625623 140.994085
2025-06-22 1.459579 4.554254 11.155540 24.441044 48.276835 86.632095 149.700230
2025-06-29 1.281904 4.328019 11.148288 25.348232 51.477690 94.334934 165.892539
2025-07-06 0.939244 3.572801 9.907316 23.759061 50.181701 94.698200 170.625125
2025-07-13 0.786065 3.305271 9.731011 24.344515 53.019634 102.346717 187.864913
2025-07-20 0.660230 3.075998 9.610260 25.052343 56.190388 110.826895 207.024700
2025-07-27 0.564234 2.901828 9.583624 25.943726 59.760343 120.164823 227.995254
2025-08-03 0.469771 2.688526 9.411297 26.486317 62.684313 128.518492 247.678913
2025-08-10 0.367388 2.388086 8.938571 26.282265 64.103056 134.272962 263.223433
2025-08-17 0.269134 2.036742 8.231784 25.421502 64.098827 137.441943 274.465215
2025-08-24 0.206521 1.801883 7.801499 25.151258 65.263096 142.763706 289.599389
2025-08-31 0.144357 1.508936 7.101891 24.091739 64.640923 144.703776 298.858553
2025-09-07 0.122331 1.434789 7.106503 24.853636 68.016969 154.333869 322.100659
2025-09-14 0.086233 1.222743 6.564596 24.067569 67.887054 157.229311 333.360533
2025-09-21 0.074074 1.178204 6.628524 24.963605 71.622403 167.790227 358.882007